Tuesday, September 15, 2009

The Drake Equation

Drake's Equation is an often quoted formula that is used to guesstimate the number of extraterrestrial civilizations that might be in existence at any one time. It combines eight (often arbitrary) elements from star formation to stages in life development. From this is derived a supposed number that represents how many advanced civilizations might exist in our galaxy right now.

These elements are:

  • Average rate of star formation in our galaxy (R*)

  • Fraction of those stars that have planets (fp)

  • Average number of planets that potentially support life per star that has planets (ne)

  • Fraction of those planets that actually develop life at some point (fl)

  • Fraction of those planets that then develops intelligent life (fi)

  • Fraction of those civilizations that develop technology that can and does send detectable signals of their existence into space (fc)

  • And, the length of time such civilizations remain detectable via their transmissions (L)

The formula this looks something like N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L.

Here's an example of how to use the formula based on estimates of values for its variables.

  • R* = 10/year (10 stars formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy)

  • fp = 0.5 (half of all stars formed will have planets)

  • ne = 2 (stars with planets will have 2 planets capable of supporting life)

  • fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)

  • fi = 0.01 (1% of which will be intelligent life)

  • fc = 0.01 (1% of which will be able to communicate)

  • L = 10,000 years (which will last 10,000 years)

Drake's values give N= 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10,000 = 10 civilizations with which there is possibility for us to currently communicate. This can be useful to provide rough guests as to the chances of how successful we can expect to be in our hunt for E.T.'s with programs like SETI.  SETI has a lot of equipment pointed into space looking for signals.

By Colby Gutierrez-Kraybill (http://www.flickr.com/photos/cgk/1558787110/) [CC BY 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
However, the formula is so full of guests, it may not have any value at all. In fact, even the elements of the formula are themselves guests. For example, one might question why star formation rate has any impact on how many planets may form with life. Also, given more modern understandings of our galaxy, such as the Rare Earth Hypothesis, many other factors may be more important that those used the Drake Equation. Additionally, there is a problem that many stars have been discovered to have Hot Jupiters, which would destroy any terrestrial worlds, thus preventing the opportunity for life to develop in that star system. Even worse, the question is raised about our own arrogance in the assumption that all life would resemble us enough to communicate in the same forms as we do.

It appears now that the Drake Equation is actually pseudo-science. It is not based on any hypothesis. It is nothing more than a series of guests. It does not produce anything that is testable. In fact, it's author, Dr. Frank Drake, didn't originally intend for this formula to be used in the way that is has been. It was meant to be an organizational tool for the discussion about intelligent life in the Universe specifically for a gathering called The Green Bank Meeting in 1960, so named for its location at the Green Bank Telescope.

Right now, it seems the best way to know how common life is in our galaxy is to explore it. The Drake Equation is more of a mathematical toy than an actual useful formula.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

California Nature (minor tweak)

Your journey roads herald adventure,
Impelling me to climb your cloven heights,
And romp carelessly,
as aureate poppy fields beckon.

Sun-kissed waters bounce along your shoreline.
They entice me to surf the crashing calm waves.

Canopy-enveloped valleys thrive with floral scents
That draw my ingression, but I forestall.

Instead I caper like Racetrack Playa’s sailing stones,
Which tickle your basin by some unseen will.

I endeavor to hike your proud hills,
And find places to gaze lostly into lakes full with sky.

Vineyard nectar overflows like sweet sweat,
To spur my soul’s arousal as I partake.
Your boundless attributes gratify my wanderlust,
And allure me to appease your nature.

Friday, September 11, 2009

"In the Hopper"

As far as I can remember, the very first (and only) time I've ever heard the phrase "in the hopper" occurred this week.  It was such a strange phrase; I had to look it up.  It turns out that the person who introduced me to this phrase used it completely incorrectly.  The statement from that person made to me was similar to "let's keep this in the hopper for awhile."  The inference is that something is being put on hold for a particular time frame.  However, "in the hopper" actually has a meaning that is quite the opposite.  When I looked it up on http://www.dictionary.com, I found that it refers to something being introduced or something about to happen or be realized.  Now that I've learned a new phrase, I just might start using it (correctly, of course).  One might say that my use of "in the hopper" is now in the hopper.

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Possible type of Alien Lifeforms (Part 2: Exotic Amino Acids)


For the most part, life on Earth uses the same set of nucleotides (amino acids) to form the basis of their DNA. In all, almost all known life uses 20 particular amino acids. These are often classified by their bases as A (adenine), C (cytosine), G (guanine) and T (thymine). These are the basic building blocks of DNA. They are also used to build proteins. Of course, from a certain point of view, DNA is just a really long protein.

How DNA uses these amino acids is described by Paul Davies in his article Are Aliens among Us? published in Scientific American, Dec 2007. He states, "The genetic code is based on triplets of nucleotides, with different triplets spelling out the names of different amino acids. The sequence of triples in a gene dictates the sequence of amino acids that must be strung together to build a particular protein."

Alien lifeforms may use exotic amino acids that are far different than the ones used by life on Earth. It is possible that the set of amino acids we use may not even appear on other worlds. Evidence by scientific study suggests that there are many other forms of amino acids that may be useful (or at least available) for other types of life. Evidence of exotic amino acids on other worlds has come from meteorites. Also, others have been synthesized in the lab.

Other lifeforms from other worlds may be completely different from us while still using the same basic DNA structure we use. A question remains, would life formed by exotic amino acids be all that much different than Terran life in appearance? Would the exotic amino acids lead life to evolve along completely different paths that we as yet have not conceived?

Reference: “Are Aliens Among Us?” by Paul Davies, Scientific American December 2007

Related articles

Saturday, August 29, 2009

What are the odds of Humaniods evolving again?

Humans take human-level intelligence for granted.  So much so, that our humanoid form seems to prevail any of our notions of intelligent life on other worlds.  Images of Greys, EBENs and other aliens have the same general plane symmetry body plan as us, with two arms, legs, a torso, a head, symmetric features, two eyes, mouth, nose holes, brain, etc.  But what are the chances of life evolving in this way again, either on another world or evolving again here on Earth after humans are gone?

The major problem with this is that life goes through a great number of changes as it evolves over time. At each point, a very specific set of criteria sets the stage for what is eventual deemed successful adaption and what comes to the end of the line. Given what little we know right now, it seems unlikely that changes at each step will follow the same path twice in different ecosystems and different worlds.

Sure, we do have convergent evolution, where multiple species evolve the same abilities in separate epochs and ecosystems.  But is human-level intelligence something that will happen naturally again?  Is having two legs, two arm, a face, etc, something that happens naturally as a matter functionality?  Could there be intelligence as advanced as ours, but in a completely different form?

We don't know anything concrete regarding evolution of life on the cosmic scale.   For years it was assumed that the form of our Solar System was common, and that is what makes life elsewhere likely.  We exist; there's nothing special about us; therefore life like us exists elsewhere.  This is a bit silly since we have no data to support that.   In fact, when we started finding planets in other star systems, the Solar System model proved to be quite unusual.

Maybe our understanding of evolution is still incomplete at the cosmic scale.  Maybe traits we see in Terran life are common on other worlds simply because these adaptions are the most successful in general, regardless of specific ecosystems that may exist.  Before people start declaring this or that is unlikely, let's collect data and find out.

Start sending probes to other star systems and poke about.  The probes will take a long time to get where they're going, but so what.   Unless we humans kill ourselves off (or nature does it for us), our posterity should be around to receive the results of our efforts, so that they can figure this out with actual evidence, instead of relying on unscientific guesses (see Drake's Equation).

Related articles

Possible types of Alien Lifeforms (Part 1: Mirror Life)


On Earth, life uses what is called right-handed DNA. Right-handed DNA uses left-handed amino acids, sometimes described as homochiral. The fact that all lifeforms on Earth use Right-handed DNA suggests that all life here is descendant from a common group of ancestors.

Why does the difference matter? If single cell members of mirror life (with left-handed DNA) are placed in a nutrient broth consisting of only left-handed amino acids, the lifeforms will not be able to thrive. The same is true of the reverse.

Mirror life is a type of lifeform that uses the same type of DNA structure, but where the DNA is left-handed. This type of life, in turn, used right-handed amino acids.

UFO Grade SchoolThe possibly that life on other worlds may be mirror life is very exciting. If found, it would lend tremendous evidence that life is possible in other forms as well.

----

Reference: "Are Aliens Among Us?" by Paul Davies, Scientific American December 2007

Related articles

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

"Mommy, what's a keyboard"

Even with the explosion of the QWERTY keyboard being plastered on to almost every type of electronic device these days, I’m going to go out on a limb here and now to declare that the QWERTY keyboard will be obsolete within my lifetime. This prediction is not limited to the keyboard device I’m using to type this article. I’m referring to any type of letter based data input that takes the form of QWERTY. The beginning of the end for QWERTY is not the Dvorak keyboard. Nor is it speak [mis]recognition technology. In my view, the signal of the end is predictive text input.

Predictive text input is where a person enters there first couple of letters and then is presented with a word or list of words that most likely match the author’s intent. The author keeps typing until the correct word appears, then accepts the entry. On a cell phone number pad, each number represents 3 or 4 letters. Predictive test input can quickly find the desired word, often with the push of only a couple of numbers. In addition, more sophisticated systems will learn which words are most commonly used by the author and present those as first choices to the author.

With predictive text input, a person can drastically increase their typing capabilities. I’ve seen individuals text with cell phones numeric pads faster than what is even possible on a smartphone QWERTY keyboard. In fact, I would suggest that average wpm speeds of numeric pad texters with predictive text input even exceeds that of experienced typists on traditional full size keyboard devices. That’s not hyperbole, and I’m not kidding. The QWERTY keyboard’s current Golden Age will be over soon enough.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Road Trip, Santa Barbara

My wife and I took a relaxing road trip to Santa Barbara recently to beat the heat wave in Silicon Valley. The weather in Santa Barbara was cool in the 70's, and the sun came out in the mid-afternoon. Meanwhile, back at home, some areas hit 100's. Oh darn!

los padres national forest,San Luis Obispo,Central California,CA,G8

I guess we'd just suffer with this horrible weather in the Los Padres National Forest.

Downtown,San Luis Obispo,SLO,San Luis Obispo Downtown,G8

Or this unbearable sunshine in the San Luis Obispo Downtown.

Pismo Beach,G8

Don't get me started about lovely Pismo Beach!

Stern's Warf,Stern's Warf,Santa Barbara,G8

Actually, Santa Barbara itself had a little off-cast in the mornings. Oh, the horror of it all.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Cool July

There as been a lot of nice days this year. Too many, in fact. Our summer
is feeling more like spring. The weather has been mild like this since
early spring. It's a little odd, though nice to not have the usual summertime
heat wave that plagues us in most years here in Silicon Valley. It makes me
a bit concerned that the falling fall and winter may be particularly wet.
I don't mind the rain so much...just concerns about all the hazards that
come from too much of it. At least we'll not bake in the sweltering heating.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Early one morning

One particular morning a month or so ago, my dog asked to go outside to take care of business a bit earlier than usual. Being that he is still rather young, I obliged. It must've been about 4 AM. The sky was still dark with the slightest hint of morning twilight. The air was crisp with a pleasant scent. While the little guy squatted, I had a chance to look around. I was treated with my own little safari. Two jack rabbits where off in the distance playing around in the tall grass. Little roadrunner-like birds where running back and forth across the road. Other birds fluttered about from tree to tree, sometimes chased out by the squirrels. This is the sight I beheld from just beyond my from porch.

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Staycation is now an official word (kinda)

There is no official "American English" dictionary. Such a dictionary would be counter to the basic ideal of Freedom of Speech. However, we do have dictionaries that stand as an authority of sorts. A bunch of new words were just added to Merriam-Webster dictionary. Among those words is staycation, which is defined as a vacation spent at home or nearby. Not mentioned is how close to home "nearby" represents. It is an overnight stay about hour's drive away from home? Or is it just travelling locally and coming back home within the same day?

Allie and I took a short vacation on Thursday and Friday to the Monterey Peninsula. I had originally wanted to take a road trip to Santa Barbara, but that seemed a bit too far for the limited time available to us. By comparison, a trip to Monterey can be called a staycation.

We hit up some of the same old places, like Cannery Row. We also explored something new to both of us; Carmel Valley, with its several wineries.

We stayed overnight at Green Gables Inn in Pacific Grove. This place was once made nationally famous with one of the commercials where Visa brags about being accepted at a place that did not accept American Express. As far as I noticed, they still do not accept American Express, but they do take Discover. I used my MasterCard.

Green Gables Inn just started up a new website where they can take online reservations. It is promoted as a quaint Bed and Breakfast. However, it is kind of a hotel with suites (self styled "boutique hotel"). Some of the rooms are in the main Victorian home, but there are also separate suites in a second slightly more modern building. The suites have old charm (so called "Victorian"). The building is very old, so some modern considerations are not addressed, such as sound dampening between rooms. However, it does have modern amenities too, such as a large romantic bathtub with jets. The location doesn't get much better. The view of Monterey Bay is awesome. It is within walking distance of both Cannery Row and Lover's Point. The staff is very friendly and will make you feel like you are at home. Overall, the experience is very pleasant.

We did lunch on Friday at the Fishhopper on Cannery Row. I asked for a table over the water. They sat us right at the very edge of the dinning room that jets out into the bay. It was like our own personal sea life zoo. We had fun spotting seals lounging on nearby rocks. Then, as a special treat, the sea otters starting show up in the kelp forest. I spotted 5 of them. I believe that is the most I've ever seen at one time. There was a squadron of pelicans that zoomed by skimming across the surface of the water, also the usual gulls chilling out. The only fish we saw in the ocean was actually fulfilling the role of meal for one of the sea otters.

Though I'm from Monterey County, I've not travelled every road. One area I've not explored before is Carmel Valley. A 20 minute short drive from Carmel-by-the-sea, it might as well be a world away. It is in the middle of rolling and lush hills. Several wineries can be found along this route, allowing one to make a day of wine tasting. It isn't over commercialized or crowed like Napa Valley has become. It is very quiet and laid back. We only spent Friday afternoon there. Northern Monterey Country actually has quite a diversity of wineries and might be worth a dedicated wine tasting trip one of these days.