Monday, December 31, 2007

Sunday, December 30, 2007

No profit from this I-told-you-so moment

It's many years late, and the longer it took, the worse things look. The housing-bubble has finally burst. Homes are just too expensive to be affordable to the average person trying to live a fruitful life. I remember having several different conversations with those in the real estate field a few years ago mentioning that this was a bubble and it was going to burst. I got the same know-it-all answer from each of them. "No [with a know-it-all-smile], after the demand has been satisfied, the housing market will stabilize and level off (or plateau or flatten). There will not be a decline." One person was so sold on this ridiculous and unhistorical notion that they rebuked me for not knowing anything about the market. Of course, I just laughed at that, illicitting a confused but still smug facial expression from that person.

In an inflation driven market based on free-market principles , the demand for supplies is never really flat. It cannot be. If there is a sustained reduction in demand, that is a sign of uncertainty and/or lack of necessity. If the demand flattens out, it is really already in decline. A stable market is one that has sustained modest growth. Well, the housing market never flattened. Prices had risen so high that the only direction to go for most areas is down. Exsurbs and isolated cities here in California have seen massive declines. Centers of activity have stabilized and are so far holding their own. These areas, however, are in the minority, and who knows how long that will last.

There's going to have to be a bail-out of the mess. I find it interesting just how Republican leadership is willing to bail-out industries in the past with wades of cash (e.g., Savings and Loan), yet now that the average American is going to be adversely effected directly, Republicans are too timid to respond to help. President Bush Jr.'s action so far is so limited in scope that it is only going to help an extremely small portion of those affected. And where are the Democrats? They are too timid to confront the Republican Party for its timidity.

This brings me to the point where I have to criticize a perception of our economy. Corporations are treated as though they are the most important element in our country, at times to the exclusion of the citizens' rights and welfare. A Corporation is an imaginary entity that only exists because a bunch of people agree the common fantasy. A Corporation doesn't really exist. If all of the employees and ownership walked away, it would cease to function and have no purpose. I question why a Corporation is viewed as more important than the individual humans that are apart of it, or even the citizenry at at large. Far too often, the Corporations are given massive privileges and leeway that are denied to actual voting citizens of our country. Human beings are treated as second class citizens when pitted against a Corporation. This is unconscionable and unconstitutional. Giving Corporations an elevated status is a flawed mindset that many neo-cons seem to believe in as though a religion of its own. Unfortunately, the mindset is quietly supported by many politicians, regardless of affiliation.

We have to stop putting imaginary entities ahead of our citizens. In fact, we have to stop victimization of our citizens by these Corporations. Victimization of the type that has lead to the current housing crisis at hand. It was also the cause of the Western U.S. power grid crisis during the Enron Embarassment.

So, I (and many others) ended up being right about this housing crisis. Unfortunately, I personally have no way of benefiting from it directly. As far as I know, there's no way to short-sell property with options as housing prices drop. I'm so invested in my current property, I can't really afford to buy into new property when the house prices hit bottom.

I'm not expert about anything I've mentioned here. Just one person that's seen all this before. I expected the housing crisis to hit much sooner and not so intensely. My mistake was not understanding how the sub-prime situation was allowing the housing bubble to grow much bigger than it would've had sub-primes been regulated much better. Hopefully the weakened economy will have enough support to keep it chugging along, even if at a slower right. I'm just kinda wish I had a way to get more benefit during this period.

Xmas things and stuff

Allie and I met Ronie and Fernado for breakfast this morning. It was good just to sit down and chat it up for awhile. We didn't get a change to do anything with them a bit closer to Christmas. They've been the host of several get-togethers over the past couple of years. We wanted to do something nice for them, so we put together a gift basket. We also insisted on paying for the meal, which lead to a somewhat comical attempt for them to pay half. It kinda felt like Allie's family when everyone fights over who gets to pay. I get a kick out of that, though I don't really understand it.

Christmas itself was fun. We spent time with Allie's family and with an Aunt of mine and then more time with Allie's family. I'm a little bummed that my friend Miriam had to cancel her get together today due to illnesses. Hopefully I'll get a chance to meet up with her soon, after she heals herself up. At least we got a chance to chat for awhile.

We did get a change to talk to my friend Dave this week. He's up in the Seattle area. Ya'no, I've had so many friends move out of the area. It's like, am I scaring everyone away? :) Or am I the grim ripper of California inhabitants; if I come into your life, you will be moving far away at some point? Well, that wouldn't be so true of Ronie and Miriam, and Allie too, but heck, it applied to Jenn, Jennifer, my parents, Dave and Little Miriam, my Ex, my Ex's mother, and her brother and new wife, and...that list is already too long and it doesn't include many I've lost contact with. (I miss you.) Its funny, I don't keep in touch with anyone I knew before 1997, but now its getting hard to keep in touch with many I've got to know since. I've been pretty up beat about this, but now that I'm writing it, it's a bummer.

Saturday, December 29, 2007

Medical Myths and the Myths about those myths - Part 6 (woman decides the sex of her baby)

An old myth is that the woman decides the sex of her baby when she gets pregnant. Even today, some cultures still have this belief. So, what's the myth about this myth? When I was a child, I learned that it is the father that determines the sex of the baby. Of course, this is as big of a myth as believing the mother has control over this event.

The fact of the matter is that barring actual (and expensive) medical intervention, and for all practical purposes, the selection of a baby's sex is completely random. Neither the mother nor the father can make the selection through conscientious efforts.[1] There are many different and often bizarre myths surrounding conception, as an article at babycenter.com covers.[2]

Many different actions can be tried with to improve the chance of getting pregnant, but sex selection is still not directly in the hands of either parent. Granted, Y (male) sperm have been deemed weaker and can be more affected by a woman's pH balance more so than X (female) sperm, but more boys are born than girls on a world wide basis. Nature has already figured all this out for us, and if decision making has happened, it is a result of our species' evolution, and not preferences we conjure up in our own minds.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

Creationist say what? Nothing?

Arguements for Christian creationist beliefs can often be summed up with one word, "nothing". The linked site is a classic example for creatisionist to attempt to prove evolution is somehow in doubt by scientists. It pretty much just takes a bunch of quotes out of context and pins them together to form what appears to be one cohesive argument against the validity of the Theory of Evolution. The main problem with this, of course, is that these are not valid references. They are quotes taken out of context from a diverse, unrelated, outdated and very often unauthoritative sources.

Many times, they quote from reputable publications, but don't make it clear that these quotes are of quotes by the source to argue against creationism. In other words, it is creationists quoting creationists. They try to make the creationist seem as though they are scientists that is lamenting evolution.

Another trick is they quote scientists of unrelated fields. I am amazed how often an oft-handed comment by Einstein or Steven Hawkins is quoted as proof that scientists question the Theory of Evolution.

They also grab quotes from newsletters or other unvetted periodicals and present them as though they were creditably published.

So, in the end, they are just quoting a bunch of random comments in a way the becomes original research of their own, finding a conclusion that in no way is reasonable if the whole of their sources are read.

Medical Myths and the Myths about those myths - Part 5 (reading in the dark is bad)

Another myth I have found to be false is the idea that reading in the dark, or otherwise straining your eyes can adversely affect your vision. According to a recent report, researchers have found no evidence that reading in dim light causes permanent eye damage. It can cause eye strain and temporarily decrease vision, but that subsides after rest.[1] Personally, I've never worried too much about what reading in the dark can do to my vision because it never made sense to me as to why it would have a permenant affect.

In fact, my own experience suggests that it is important to execise my eyes. Both my parents and my sister require glasses, having less than ideal vision. I've always tried to keep my eyes exercised. Until a few years ago, I never noticed any issues with my eye sight. Recently, I started noticing some imperfection in my sight, so I went into the eye doctor. Come to find out, vision in one of my eyes is 20/15, and it's 20/20 in the other. Apparently, my vision used to be in the 20/12 to 20/16 range. I was getting fussy about having lowly 20/20 vision. At times in the past, I doubted what I was doing. Now though, I at least have some sense of control regarding the health of my eyes.