Tuesday, December 14, 2004

Retail Sales Prediction

Based on what I've seen so far, I predict that overall U.S. retail sales for this xmas season will be stronger than expected, particularly for mall retailers. The malls (at least in the SF Bay area and Silicon Valley) are as busy as I've seen since 1989.
Partially linked to this, Walmart (and prolly most other non-mall discounters) will suffer this year, as people are going to the malls, or are shopping for the better quality goods. Target looks like it positioned itself to have the best of both worlds since it expanded into the malls (replacing Wards in many locations), and maintains the perception of higher level of quality goods at good prices.

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